Injection-induced seismicity: Poroelastic and earthquake nucleation effects

The standard model of injection-induced seismicity considers changes in Coulomb strength due solely to changes in pore pressure. We consider two additional effects: full poroelastic coupling of stress and pore pressure, and time-dependent earthquake nucleation. We model stress and pore pressure due to specified injection rate in a homogeneous, poroelastic medium. Stress and pore pressure are used to compute seismicity rate through the Dieterich (1994) model. For constant injection rate, the time to reach a critical seismicity rate scales with t ∼ r∕(cfc), where r is distance from the injector, c is hydraulic diffusivity, and fc is a factor that depends on mechanical properties, and weakly on r. The seismicity rate decays following a peak, consistent with some observations. During injection poroelastic coupling may increase or decrease the seismicity rate, depending on the orientation of the faults relative to the injector. If injection-induced stresses inhibit slip, abrupt shut-in can lead to locally sharp increases in seismicity rate; tapering the flux mitigates this effect. The maximum magnitude event has been observed to occur postinjection. We suggest the seismicity rate at a given magnitude depends on the nucleation rate, the size distribution of fault segments, and if the background shear stress is low, the time-varying volume of perturbed crust. This leads to a rollover in frequency-magnitude distribution for larger events, with a “corner” that increases with time. Larger events are absent at short times, but approach the background frequency with time; larger events occurring post shut-in are thus not unexpected.